Space Junk: collision imminent
It was bound to happen eventually. On February 10th two large satellites collided in orbit - Kosmos 2251 crashed into Iridium 33 [spaceweather] [bbc].
Even with sophisticated tracking and modeling mechanisms, two large satellites managed to crash into each-other. On the one hand it's surprising - even the experts all say "unexpected" and "extremely unlikely". On the other hand, there's an awful lot of junk up there. Tools like JTRACK can give you an idea of just how much stuff there is up there. Even just looking at the working satellites alone, it's an awful lot of stuff to keep track of. Add-in the space junk and dead satellites, and amount of stuff to track becomes pretty overwhelming.
As the number of items grows, the problem of simulating the whole thing becomes an issue of computational bandwidth. Tracking alone won't tell you when to look out for collisions, but it will give you data to use in simulations which may give you some advance warning. Tracking that many objects becomes a problem of it's own. But I don't think that either is the real solution.
Ultimately what will need done is at least combination of things.
* international agreements will need to be made on a protocol for space-use. For instance, defunct satellites need to be decommissioned and removed from orbit somehow.
* safe ways of removing the space-junk that's already up there needs to be devised. Some sort of agreements / property rights would probably have to be worked-out for defunct satellites. (For instance, I've heard the Smithsonian has first-rights to all space-stuff returned by the US / found on US soil.
* some sort of agreements or body will need to be in place to handle problems such as this, where a 'defunct' satellite destroys a working one.
It may even come to be that we will need some sort of active machinery to prevent collisions, perhaps even something akin to current military high-energy laser systems. Such systems would require sophisticated controls, real-time software, and probably certification as a life-and-mission critical system.
I'll have to assume something like this will be built in the future. No-one has contacted me about my low-tech idea of a "giant fly paper strip" that could be attached to the tail of the ISS...


As an Engineering Specialist, it is Mike Deliman's responsibility to enable customers to achieve success in their endeavors, assist sales groups in evangelizing Wind River's technologies, and bring feedback of customer needs and experiences back into Marketing and Engineering. Mike has over 15 years of experience with VxWorks. 



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