A Very Unscientific Survey on the Future of WiMAX and LTE

I recently spent an afternoon at the 2009 4G World Conference held in Chicago. This was a rather small conference on a very big topic. There were a variety of vendors on hand exhibiting their wares: antennas, microwaves, connectors, and even complete end-to-end 4G systems. Some of the leading telecom equipment providers were showing their latest gear: Alcatel-Lucent, Alvarion, Motorola, Nokia-Siemens, Samsung, WiChorus, and ZTE.  Notably not present in any comparable way were Cisco, Huawei and Ericsson.

Motorola, a huge investor in WiMAX, was showcasing everything from infrastructure gear to new CPE devices. It had on display a new network-connected smart meter based on WiMAX technology, and I've included a photo of the device below.

Other non-traditional gear included WiMAX-based health monitors on display in the Samsung booth. As wireless broadband networks deploy, we’ll be seeing many new applications and devices taking advantage of this new connectivity opportunity.

Most of the equipment providers were showing both WiMAX and LTE (Long Term Evolution) technology solutions. Developing equipment for both technologies requires a significant investment. The challenge equipment providers face is how to place their bets and where to allocate their resources for the biggest reward. The good news for equipment providers is they can standardize on a common carrier grade open software platform as the foundation for building network gear for both 4G wireless technologies. Many of the leading equipment provides, including some of the companies mentioned previously, are building both WiMAX and LTE equipment based on Wind River’s Carrier Grade Linux and VxWorks software solutions.

Now for the survey. As I visited with representatives from each of the equipment provider companies, I asked one question: In the next five years, which technology, WiMAX or LTE, will have the most base stations shipped? LTE was the winner by far. Some guessed 90% of the base stations shipped would be LTE and 10% WiMAX. The most conservative estimate put LTE at 60% and WiMAX at 40%. This estimate came from one of the big traditional equipment providers that has hedged its bet with investments in both LTE and WiMAX.

Why will LTE overwhelmingly win the base station race? The primary reason is because LTE wireless technology will accommodate the hundreds of millions of mobile telephone subscribers already in existence. And most, if not all, major global carriers have announced plans to convert their networks to LTE. However, most survey respondents agreed there will be an opportunity for both wireless technologies to coexist.

So what’s you’re prediction?  Will LTE dominate the 4G landscape?  Can the companies that made big bets on WiMAX early on parlay their investments into LTE?